Speaker: Mark Wilson
Affiliation: Computer Science Department
Title: Predicting FPP elections
Date: Tuesday, 6 Oct 2015
Time: 5:00 pm
Location: CAG15/114-G15 (Commerce A)
In this informal talk I will discuss some basic issues involved predicting elections in countries using the First Past The Post (single-winner plurality in districts) electoral system. A variety of methods have been tried with varying success. Part of the reason for this talk is to clarify for myself what “success” means. The talk will focus on standard methods involving models of “swing”, which often underlie more complicated models. I will make some predictions for the Canada 2015 election.