SpeakerThomas Pfeiffer  (New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study, Massey University)

Title of the talk: “Decision markets in theory, experiment, and practical applications”

Date, Time and Venue: Wednesday, 31 May 2017,  2:00-3:00 pm, 260-307 [Business School Building, Level 3]

What this talk is going to be about, in Thomas’ words: “Knowledge in society is often dispersed, with different individuals holding different pieces of information. Decision markets are novel mechanisms to harness this knowledge for decision-making. They combine scoring rules to reward individuals for accurate forecasts with decision rules to translate aggregated forecasts into decisions. Because of this combination, decision markets can also be viewed as voting mechanisms that tie votes on actions to forecasts of their consequences.

In preparation for a full Marsden proposal on decision markets, I would like to discuss some promising open questions on this topic:

  • What are the most interesting theoretical aspects of the proposal?
    • What really is the relation between decision markets and voting mechanisms – i.e. what framework in voting theory is best suited to compare decision markets with other voting mechanisms?
    • The decision rules in proper decision markets are stochastic – what is the most relevant literature on stochastic voting systems?
    • The forecasting functionality of decision markets resembles (to some degree) signalling of candidates intentions prior to an election. Is there theory on campaign promises and voting?
  • What are the most interesting aspects in terms of human-subjects experiments
    • Proof-of-concept: we currently don’t really have a solid one – what is the best possible experiment for this (e.g. compare to Plott’s XYZ prediction market experiments)?
    • What would be a good lab setup/scenario to compare voting and decision markets?
  • What are the most relevant implications of such a proposal
    • Can decision markets help strengthening evidence-based decision-making in a “post-truth” world?

This is really intended as “sparring” session – I’ll prepare material for about 15 min (max), and would be very grateful for critical feedback, discussion, and pointers to the literature.”

Everyone welcome!

SpeakerJiamou Liu  (University of Auckland & CMSS Member)

Title of the talk: “How to Build Your Network? – A Structural Analysis” joint work with Anastasia Moskvina (AUT)

Date, Time and Venue: Wednesday, 5 April 2017,  2:00-3:00 pm, 260-307 [Business School Building, Level 3]

What this talk is going to be about, in Jaimou’s own words: “Creating new ties in a social network facilitates knowledge exchange and affects positional advantage. We study the process of establishing ties between a single node and an existing network in order to reach certain structural goals. We motivate this problem from two perspectives. The first perspective is socialization: we ask how a newcomer can forge relationships with an existing network to place herself at the center. The second perspective is network expansion: we investigate how a network may preserve or reduce its diameter through linking with a new node, hence ensuring small distance between its members. We then extend our discussion to the problem of network integration, which refers to the process of building links between two networks so that they dissolve into a single unified network.”

Everyone welcome!

Speaker: Nina Anchugina (PhD Candidate, University of Auckland)

Title of the talk: “A Puzzle of Mixing Discount Functions” joint work with Matthew Ryan (AUT) and Arkadii Slinko (University of Auckland)

Date, Time and Venue: Wednesday, 15 March 2017,  2:00-3:00 pm, 206-202 [Arts 1 Building, Level 2]

What this talk is going to be about, in Nina’s own words: “This talk will introduce the concept of a “discount function” from decision theory, and discuss some results on mixtures of discount functions.  These results suggest a puzzle that we are struggling to resolve.  Your help is sought!

In decision-theory, intertemporal preferences are modelled using “discount functions”, which attach weights to different points in time at which costs or benefits might be experienced.  In reliability theory, “survival functions” describe the probability that a component survives beyond any given point in time.  Discount functions and survival functions have similar mathematical properties.  If S(t) is a survival function, its “failure rate” is given by -S'(t)/S(t).  For discount functions, the analogous quantity is known as the “time preference rate”.  For exponential functions, this rate is constant.  For hyperbolic functions, which have become popular for modelling intertemporal preferences, this rate is strictly decreasing – a phenomenon known as strictly decreasing impatience (DI).  It is well known that mixing – that is, forming convex combinations – of exponentials produces a function that exhibits strictly DI.  (The analogous result is also well known in reliability theory.) We study generalisations of this phenomenon, from which a puzzle emerges.  For example, we have not been able to prove (or disprove) that mixing an exponential function with a non-exponential function that exhibits DI will always produce a mixture that exhibits strictly DI.  Are we missing something, or do these mixtures behave very strangely?”

Everyone welcome!

Speaker: Patrick Girard, University of Auckland (Department of Philosophy) and CMSS Member

Title of talk #1: “Ceteris Paribus Preferences”

Date, Time and Venue: Wednesday, 22 March 2017,  2:00-3:00 pm, 206-202 [Arts 1 Building, Level 2]

What talk #1 is going to be about, in Patrick’s own words: “I’m writing a book on Ceteris Paribus Logic. I’m trying to get closure with 10+ years on the topic, which had me doing a log of preference and belief revision logic. I have a chapter on preference logic which at the moment contains no less than 40 definitions of preference! Some are a bit mad, but for the most part they are plausible. As a logician, my goal is to unify them all into a simple preference logic, which is what the book is about, but not what I will bore you with in the talk. Instead, I will get you to realise why one might be so mad as to offer 40 definitions of preferences, and we can discuss if and how it may relate to your own research.”

Title of talk #2: “Inconsistent Logic”

Date, Time and Venue: Wednesday, 29 March 2017,  2:00-3:00 pm, 260-040B [Business School Building, Level 0]

What talk #2 is going to be about, in Patrick’s own words: “Now this is mad! I’m a new-born dialetheist. That’s a philosophical position which says that some contradictions are inevitable. By “inevitable”, we mean that they are true. As non-sensical as it sounds, there’s a lot of research trying to find logics, and mathematics, that can accommodate such madness. Those are called “Paraconsistent Logics” in general. Not all of them need to accept that there are true contradictions, so not all is mad. There are practical motivations for looking at logics that can tolerate inconsistencies. Think about an auto-pilot that needs to save a cabin of free passengers while receiving inconsistent information from it’s various channels. Or think about inconsistencies that people display in their beliefs and preferences, and how those are always idealised away, because we can’t cope with contradiction. Well, maybe we can, if we let in a bit more madness in our logic.”

Everyone welcome!

Speaker: Arkadii Slinko
Affiliation: Department of Mathematics
Title: Growth of dimension in complete simple games
Date: Monday, 16 May 2016
Time: 4:00 pm
Location: Clock Tower 032

Simple games are used to model a wide range of situations from decision making in committees to reliability of systems made from unreliable components and McCulloch-Pitts units in threshold logic. Weighted voting games are a natural and practically important class of simple games, in which each agent is assigned a numerical weight, and a coalition is winning if the sum of weights of agents in that coalition achieves a certain threshold.

The concept of dimension in simple games was introduced by Taylor and Zwicker in 1993 as a measure of remoteness of a given simple game from a weighted game. They demonstrated that the dimension of a simple game can grow exponentially in the number of players. However, the problem of worst-case growth of the dimension in the important class of complete games was left open. Freixas and Puente (2008) showed that complete games of arbitrary dimension exist and, in particular, their examples demonstrate that the worst-case growth of dimension in complete games is at least linear. In this paper, using a novel technique of Kurz and Napel (2015), we demonstrate that the worst-case growth of dimension in complete games is at least polynomial in the number of players. Whether or not it can be exponential remains an open question.

This is a joint paper with Liam O’Dwyer.

Everyone welcome!

The CMSS is pleased to announce the programme for its 5th Summer Workshop.

The Workshop will take place on 10-11 December 2013 at the University of Auckland.  There is no registration fee for attending the Workshop — all are welcome.

 

FINAL PROGRAMME:

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DAY 1 

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SESSION 1

Chair: Matthew Ryan

Approximate Implementation in Markovian Environments

Ludovic Renou (University of Essex) and Tristan Tomala (HEC, Paris and GREGHEC)

A Multi-Unit Dominant Strategy Double Auction

Simon Loertscher (University of Melbourne) and Claudio Mezzetti (University of Melbourne)

 

SESSION 2

Chair: John Hillas

Plasticity, Monotonicity, and Implementability

Juan Carlos Carbajal (UNSW) and Rudolf Müller (Maastricht University)

Fair Division with Random Demand

Jingyi Xue (Singapore Management University)

 

SESSION 3

Chair: Mark Wilson

Extension Theorems for the Price of Anarchy

Tim Roughgarden (Stanford University)

 

 SESSION 4

Chair: Arkadii Slinko

Implementation of Communication Equilibria by Cryptographic Cheap Talk

Peter Bardsley (University of Melbourne) and Vanessa Teague (University of Melbourne)

One-Way Interdependent Games

Andrés Abeliuk (NICTA and University of Melbourne), Gerardo Berbeglia (NICTA and Melbourne Business School) and Pascal van Hentenryck (NICTA and University of Melbourne)

Experimental Design to Persuade

Anton Kolotilin (UNSW)

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DAY 2 

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SESSION 1

Chair: Golbon Zakeri

Testing for Market Efficiency with Transactions Costs:  An Application to Convergence Bidding in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Akshaya Jha (Stanford University) and Frank Wolak (Stanford University)

The Competitive Price of Stored Water

Andy Philpott (University of Auckland)

 

SESSION 2

Chair: Golbon Zakeri

An Equilibrium Model of a Congested Oligopolistic Electricity Market with an Imperfect Cap and Trade Market for CO2 Permits

Shmuel Oren (UC Berkeley)

Vertical Structure and the Price Effects of Mergers

Jim Bushnell (UC Davis)

 

SESSION 3

Chair: Simona Fabrizi

Inefficiency in the Shadow of Unobservable Reservation Payoffs

Madhav Aney (Singapore Management University)

Learning, Entry and Competition with Uncertain Common Entry Costs

Francis Bloch (Paris School of Economics), Simona Fabrizi (Massey University) and Steffen Lippert (University of Otago)

Ex-post Efficiency with Random Participation

Murali Agastya (University of Sydney) and Oleksii Birulin (University of Sydney)

 

SESSION 4

Chair: Steffen Lippert

Edgeworth Equilibria Separable and Non-Separable Spaces

Anuj Bhowmik (ISI, Kolkata)

Voting Manipulation Games

Arkadii Slinko (University of Auckland)

Welfare Implications of Strategic Voting

Mark Wilson (University of Auckland)

 

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Venues

All sessions will be held in Room 315 of the Arts 1 Building (building number 206).

CAMPUS MAP

Registration, morning and afternoon teas will take place in the foyer outside 315.  Lunches will be served on the Level 6 airbridge in the Owen G. Glenn Building (building number 260).

Workshop Dinner

There will be a conference dinner on 10 December at Ima’s Bistro.  The following map has directions from campus.

The dinner is free for presenters.  Others wishing to join us for dinner should contact Matthew Ryan (m.ryan@auckland.ac.nz) to confirm availability of space and the attendance fee.

Accommodation

Popular hotels and serviced apartments in the vicinity of campus include:

The Quadrant

Waldorf Celestion

The Pullman

Quest Carlaw Park

Quest Parnell

The Langham

ATE Symposium

Attendees may also be interested in the following event, taking place at the Albany Campus of Massey University on 12-13 December:

1st ATE Symposium

Thanks!

Finally, thanks to our generous sponsors:

ATE Research Network (Massey University)

Department of Computer Science (University of Auckland)

Energy Centre (University of Auckland)

Electric Power Optimization Centre (University of Auckland)

University of Auckland Business School

 

 

Professor Puppe, Chair of Economic Theory at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, visited the CMSS for several weeks in February and March of 2013. Professor Puppe is managing editor of Social Choice and Welfare.

On 20 March 2013, Professor Puppe gave a Public Lecture on “Choosing how to vote: the mathematics of elections”. It gives a non-technical overview of the area. With New Zealand in the midst of a review of the Mixed Member Proportional Representation (MMP) voting system, the CMSS hopes that such events will promote more informed debate on this important topic.

Link to a video record of the talk (audio plus slides) here:

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/61342635/A201303201801.LTRD253350.REV1-slides.m4v

The 2010 summer workshop archive now contains almost all the slides for the talks.
The 2011 workshop is tentatively planned for December, and will have logic as a theme. More details will follow throughout the year.
Mark Wilson is now the Director of CMSS and the seminar organizer is Arkadii Slinko. Please contact us if you want to give a talk in the seminar, or otherwise visit us.
We expect some visitors in 2011, including Nadja Betzler from Germany.

Speaker: John Hillas
Affiliation: Department of Economics, UoA
Title: Backward Induction in Games with Imperfect Recall (with D. Kvasov)
Date: Wednesday, 13 October 2010
Time: 4:00 pm
Location: 301-242 [Science Centre, Symonds Street]

ABSTRACT

The standard solution concepts motivated by the idea of backward induction, subgame perfect equilibrium, extensive form perfect equilibrium, sequential equilibrium, and quasi-perfect equilibrium were explicitly defined only for games with perfect recall.  In games with imperfect recall a literal application of the same definitions is clearly inappropriate.  We give definitions that coincide with the standard definitions in games with perfect recall and define sensible solutions in games without perfect recall.

The basic idea is to look, at subsets of each player’s information sets, at the pure strategies that make that those subsets reachable and to define a system of beliefs as associating to that strategy and that subset a distribution over the other players’ strategies.  We define the relevant solution concepts and show (conjecture) that the inclusions and the relation to proper equilibrium of the associated normal that were true for games with perfect recall remain true.

Very much work in progress.